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Thread: General Discussion 8

  1. #451
    Administrator Honored Elder jeriddian's Avatar
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    Well, from my perspective being a pro on the industry, it's not likely to happen that way. The best we can do is institute the measures to curb the transmission rates, to slow down the spread of the virus through the population. Unfortunately, it is far too good at spreading around for us to be able to contain it effectively, so it will spread no matter what we do. But slowing it down will make it easier to treat the cases as they come up, as the healthcare system won't be so overwhelmed. Eventually, somewhere around 70% of the entire world population will likely get infected with the virus over the next few years, the vast majority in the next 12 months. The great majority of people will survive it fine having only mild to severe flu-like symptoms, recovering in about 7-14 days or so (and even so still shedding virus for a few days after the symptoms have disappeared, apparently), but there is that 2.3% death rate (and about 12% severe illness rate), mostly among the elderly (over 65), young babies, and the immunocompromised. Very young children seem to be affected very minimally. The vaccine, if it can be created, is still likely 12-18 months away, unless we get really lucky (They did make a vaccine for the Zika Virus after only seven months, but that was likely an easier virus to make a vaccine for than this one).

    If you are in a highly compromised area right now (like New York), your best bet is to stock up on supplies and self-quarantine as much as possible. Don't go out unless you really need to do so. Try and avoid close proximity with other people (the suggested distance is six feet) as much as you can. That being said, we shouldn't panic and start hoarding things (I'm sure many of you have noticed the run on toilet tissue and the pictures of empty supermarket shelves in the news). Use the proper antiseptics, wipe downs, hand cleaners, etc. that will kill the virus (not surgical masks. They won't stop it). But even those aren't that necessary as simple bleach and hand soap can kill the virus. Wash your hands frequently, and avoid touching your face as much as possible when you are out. It is said the virus could last as much as two hours in the air in floating air droplets, and last several hours on contaminated surfaces. It will take weeks to a few months (but it could be a full year) for this epidemic to run its course. If you get symptoms, see your doctor and see if you can get tested for the virus. Plan on spending a lot of time with those books you never quite got around to reading, seriously binging on Netflix, or renewing your romance with your computer monitor.

    In the "safer" areas of the country, the same will apply, but later. The virus will eventually arrive there. Only time will tell if a person who has recovered from the virus can get reinfected, but hopefully our innate immunity will kick in properly and prevent a reinfection. And of course, we can shut it down once (if) we get the vaccine.
    Last edited by jeriddian; 03-14-2020 at 04:16 AM.
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  2. #452
    Moderator Venerated Elder TransWarpDrive's Avatar
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    I'm mainly bugged by the prospect of having to stay at home so much. Here in Illinois, the governor just ordered all bars & restaurants to close (at least their dining areas; apparently take-out & delivery services will still be available), and lots of concerts over the next month or so have been either cancelled or postponed. I'm concerned that we may end up under the type of "lockdown" we see in China and Italy, where folks are ordered to stay in their houses & apartments practically 24/7. Here in the US, in the Bay Area (around San Francisco), there's already a "shelter in place" order that, according to WGN News, could last up to 3 weeks.
    Even our Windycon planning meeting this Friday is going to take place on-line only, since the hotel cancelled all meetings for March & possibly April, too.
    I suppose I must comply if I want to stay well & prevent the virus from spreading, but I'm not going to enjoy it - that's for certain.

  3. #453
    Registered User Honored Elder Fireand'chutes77's Avatar
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    Hey all,

    I'm holding up okay in DC; I expect a California or Italy-scale lockdown in the next few days. I'm well-stocked on toilet paper, food, and camping supplies. (I was sounding the alarm on this back in mid-February and keeping an eye on it since January.)

    My roommates and I are all teleworking and trying to keep outside social contact to a minimum. Lots of stuff at the Navy came out of the woodwork as we prepared to go on extended (2-3 week) telework: models to fix, Python courses to take, and so on. I (unfortunately) haven't had the time to work on writing, catch up on The Expanse - or do a throwback Kim Possible marathon. :P

    I miss my exercise routine (karate, climbing, spin, and yoga) very much. I've been trying to stay active on nice days with bike rides, in the hope that going faster past people makes it less likely to catch something.

    I'm deeply worried about how COVID-19 will interact with my asthma. It's not the sort of thing that bothers me in day-to-day activities (exercise has never been a trigger), but when I get a cold, I usually use a nebulizer in the morning and evening to feel better. (As a gauge for when to call my doctor, I've never felt true respiratory *distress* during a cold that would make my nebulizer an absolute necessity.) Thankfully I stocked up a few weeks ago on levalbuterol.
    Carpe Navi: Because you never know when you'll get to go boating at government expense again.

  4. #454
    Super Moderator Honored Elder campy's Avatar
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    Good to hear from you again, 'chutes. Thanks for the update. Stay well.

  5. #455
    Registered User Honored Elder Fireand'chutes77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by campy View Post
    Good to hear from you again, 'chutes. Thanks for the update. Stay well.
    Thanks Campy. I realized it had been quite a while since I logged on, and was thinking about how all y'all are doing.
    Carpe Navi: Because you never know when you'll get to go boating at government expense again.

  6. #456
    Administrator Honored Elder jeriddian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fireand'chutes77 View Post
    Hey all,

    I'm holding up okay in DC; I expect a California or Italy-scale lockdown in the next few days. I'm well-stocked on toilet paper, food, and camping supplies. (I was sounding the alarm on this back in mid-February and keeping an eye on it since January.)

    My roommates and I are all teleworking and trying to keep outside social contact to a minimum. Lots of stuff at the Navy came out of the woodwork as we prepared to go on extended (2-3 week) telework: models to fix, Python courses to take, and so on. I (unfortunately) haven't had the time to work on writing, catch up on The Expanse - or do a throwback Kim Possible marathon. :P

    I miss my exercise routine (karate, climbing, spin, and yoga) very much. I've been trying to stay active on nice days with bike rides, in the hope that going faster past people makes it less likely to catch something.

    I'm deeply worried about how COVID-19 will interact with my asthma. It's not the sort of thing that bothers me in day-to-day activities (exercise has never been a trigger), but when I get a cold, I usually use a nebulizer in the morning and evening to feel better. (As a gauge for when to call my doctor, I've never felt true respiratory *distress* during a cold that would make my nebulizer an absolute necessity.) Thankfully I stocked up a few weeks ago on levalbuterol.
    As I noted in the other thread, it's great to have you back, 'chutes. You are right to be extra careful. Your asthma indicates that your immune system would tend to overreact to the virus and your symptoms would likely be more severe, putting you in a higher risk category, much like us older guys here on the forum. Please do stay safe. We miss you, buddy.
    "Say the Word"

  7. #457
    Moderator Venerated Elder TransWarpDrive's Avatar
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    By all means, take care of yourself, 'chutes. It's good to hear from you again. Hopefully, we can get through this "stay-at-home" period and still keep our sanity. Keeping in touch on-line this way is an excellent means of giving each other support - even if we can't meet face-to-face.

  8. #458
    Administrator Honored Elder jeriddian's Avatar
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    Just as a note, we have now reached 50,000 posts on this forum, half of what was had when we left the ARA so many years ago (Has it been almost 13 years. My, how time flies). I congratulate you all for making this forum the success that it is. Yes, we are small. We don't have that much activity anymore, though we have more now than any other KP forum, including FF.net I believe. But we are still here, ever hopeful, and I think that is successful.
    "Say the Word"

  9. #459
    Registered User Honored Elder Fireand'chutes77's Avatar
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    Thanks! I've been keeping up with friends and family through Facebook and phone calls, and my roommates and I are hanging in there.

  10. #460
    Registered User Honored Elder Fireand'chutes77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jeriddian View Post
    Just as a note, we have now reached 50,000 posts on this forum, half of what was had when we left the ARA so many years ago (Has it been almost 13 years. My, how time flies). I congratulate you all for making this forum the success that it is. Yes, we are small. We don't have that much activity anymore, though we have more now than any other KP forum, including FF.net I believe. But we are still here, ever hopeful, and I think that is successful.
    Wow! What a milestone. And what a journey. 13 years!!

    I've noticed I'm about 50 posts from 10k, and I intend to get there!

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